reality_test real_001: real-shape coordinator queries — surfaces cross-role bleed

First retrieval probe with non-synthetic query distribution. Pulls
N rows from /home/profit/lakehouse/data/datasets/fill_events.parquet
(real-shape demand data) and translates each to the natural language
a coordinator would type: "Need {count} {role}s in {city} {state}
starting at {at} for {client}".

Headline: 8/10 cold-pass top-1 = judge-best on real distribution.
Substrate works on queries it was never trained for. v2-moe + workers
corpus carry the load.

Surfaced finding (the real value of running this): same-client+city
queries cluster, and Shape A's distance boost bleeds across roles
within the cluster. Q#2 (Forklift @ Beacon Freight Detroit) records
e-6193 in the playbook corpus. Q#5 (Pickers same client+city) and
Q#10 (CNC Operator same client+city) inherit e-6193 at warm top-1
even though:
- Neither query has its own recorded playbook.
- Neither warm pass triggers a Shape B inject (boosted=0).
- The roles are different staffing categories.

Q#10 specifically demoted the cold-pass-correct w-3759 (judge rating
4 at rank 0) for a worker who was approved by the judge for a
different role on a different query.

Why the lift suite missed it: synthetic queries use 7 disjoint
scenario buckets (forklift+OSHA+WI / CDL+IL / etc.). Real demand
clusters on (client, city). The cluster doesn't exist in the
synthetic distribution.

Why the judge gate doesn't catch it: the gate (5a3364f) is
per-injection at record time. After approval the worker rides Shape A
distance boosts on all later same-cluster queries with no second
gate call.

Becomes new OPEN #1. Fix candidate: role-scoped playbook corpus
metadata + Shape A boost gate on role match. Cheap; doesn't need
new judge calls.

Files:
- scripts/cutover/gen_real_queries.go: parquet → coordinator NL
- tests/reality/real_coord_queries.txt: 10 generated queries
- reports/reality-tests/playbook_lift_real_001.md: harness output
- reports/reality-tests/real_001_findings.md: the reading

Repro:
  go run scripts/cutover/gen_real_queries.go -limit 10 > tests/reality/real_coord_queries.txt
  QUERIES_FILE=tests/reality/real_coord_queries.txt RUN_ID=real_001 \
    WITH_PARAPHRASE=0 WITH_REJUDGE=0 ./scripts/playbook_lift.sh

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

STATE_OF_PLAY.md

@@ -220,10 +220,11 @@ The list is intentionally short. Items move to closed when the work demands them
 
 | # | Item | When to act |
 |---|---|---|
-| 1 | **Periodic fresh→main index merge** — two-tier pattern works but `fresh_workers` grows monotonically. A scheduled job that re-ingests the fresh corpus into `workers` (with the v2-moe embedder) + clears fresh closes the loop. | When `fresh_workers` crosses ~500 items in production. |
-| 2 | **Distillation full port** — `57d0df1` shipped scorer + contamination firewall (E partial). SFT export pipeline + audit_baselines lineage still on the Rust side. | When distillation becomes a production dependency. |
-| 3 | **Drift quantification** — `be65f85` is "scorer drift first." Full distribution-drift signal is underspecified everywhere; this is research, not a port. | Open research item; no calendar. |
-| 4 | **Operational nice-to-haves** — real-time wall-clock for the stress harness; chatd fixture-mode storage half (mock S3 for CI without MinIO); liberal-paraphrase calibration once real coordinator queries land. | When any of these block someone. |
+| 1 | **Same-client+city cross-role bleed** — reality_test real_001 (`reports/reality-tests/real_001_findings.md`) caught Shape A boost from a recorded playbook hitting different-role queries on same `(client, city)` cluster. Fix candidate: role-scoped playbook corpus metadata + Shape A boost gate on role match. The judge gate handles per-injection but doesn't fire at retrieve time. | Before real coordinator demand actually starts hitting the substrate. |
+| 2 | **Periodic fresh→main index merge** — two-tier pattern works but `fresh_workers` grows monotonically. A scheduled job that re-ingests the fresh corpus into `workers` (with the v2-moe embedder) + clears fresh closes the loop. | When `fresh_workers` crosses ~500 items in production. |
+| 3 | **Distillation full port** — `57d0df1` shipped scorer + contamination firewall (E partial). SFT export pipeline + audit_baselines lineage still on the Rust side. | When distillation becomes a production dependency. |
+| 4 | **Drift quantification** — `be65f85` is "scorer drift first." Full distribution-drift signal is underspecified everywhere; this is research, not a port. | Open research item; no calendar. |
+| 5 | **Operational nice-to-haves** — real-time wall-clock for the stress harness; chatd fixture-mode storage half (mock S3 for CI without MinIO); liberal-paraphrase calibration once real coordinator queries land. | When any of these block someone. |
 
 ---
 
@@ -261,6 +262,7 @@ The list is intentionally short. Items move to closed when the work demands them
 | `68d9e55` | shared: auto-emit Langfuse trace+span per HTTP request — closes OPEN #2 |
 | `a2fa9a2` | scrum_review: pipe diff via temp files — fixes argv overflow on large bundles |
 | (prep)    | G5 cutover prep: `embed_parity` probe — Rust `/ai/embed` ↔ Go `/v1/embed` 5/5 cos=1.000 (both v1 and v2-moe). Verdict + drift catalog in `reports/cutover/SUMMARY.md`. Wire-format remap (`embeddings`/`vectors`, `dimensions`/`dimension`) is the only real cutover work; math is provably equivalent. |
+| (probe)   | Reality test real_001: 10 real-shape queries from `fill_events.parquet` through lift harness. 8/10 cold-pass top-1 = judge-best (substrate works on real distribution). Surfaced **same-client+city cross-role bleed** — Shape A boost from Forklift-Operator playbook landed on CNC-Operator query, demoting the cold-pass-correct worker. Becomes new OPEN #1. Findings: `reports/reality-tests/real_001_findings.md`. |
 
 Plus on Rust side (`8de94eb`, `3d06868`): qwen2.5 → qwen3.5:latest backport in active defaults; distillation acceptance reports regenerated (run_hash refresh, reproducibility property still holds).