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playbook_lift v4 metric: warm-top-1 re-judge — quality lift +24%/-14%

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The rank-based "lift" metric (warm-top-1 == cold-judge-best) doesn't
distinguish "Shape B surfaced a strictly-better answer" from "Shape B
shuffled ranks but quality is unchanged" from "Shape B replaced a good
answer with a wrong one." This commit adds Pass 4: judge warm top-1
with the same prompt as cold ratings, then bucket the comparison.

Implementation:
- New --with-rejudge driver flag (default off).
- New WITH_REJUDGE harness env (default 1, on for prod runs).
- queryRun gains WarmTop1Metadata (cached during Pass 2 for the
  rejudge call) + WarmTop1Rating *int (nil-distinguishable; nil = no
  rejudge, 0..5 = rating).
- summary gains RejudgeAttempted, QualityLifted, QualityNeutral,
  QualityRegressed (counts of warm-rating > / == / < cold-rating).
- Markdown headline gains a Quality block when rejudge ran.
- ~21 extra judge calls (~30s on qwen2.5).

Run #005 result (split inject threshold 0.20 + paraphrase + rejudge):

  Quality lifted     5 / 21  (24%)  — 3× +2 rating, 2× +1 rating
  Quality neutral   13 / 21  (62%)  — includes OOD queries holding 1
  Quality regressed  3 / 21  (14%)
  Net rating delta  +3 across 21 queries (+0.14 average)

The 5 lifts were all rating-2 cold replaced with rating-3 or rating-4
warm — Shape B took mediocre matches and substituted substantively
better ones. The 3 regressions were small (-1, -1, -3).

Q11 is the cautionary tale: cold top-1 "production line worker"
(rating 4) got replaced by Q1's recorded "forklift OSHA-30 operator"
e-5729 (rating 1). Adjacent-domain cross-pollination — production
worker and forklift operator embed within 0.20 cosine because both
are warehouse-adjacent staffing queries, even though the judge
correctly distinguishes them. The split-threshold defense (0.5 boost
/ 0.20 inject) catches OOD cross-pollination (Q19/Q20/Q21 all stayed
neutral at rating 1) but not adjacent-domain cross-pollination.

Net product verdict: working, net-positive on quality, but the worst
case (Q11 4→1) is customer-visible and warrants a tighter inject
threshold OR an additional gate beyond cosine distance. Filed in
STATE_OF_PLAY OPEN as a follow-up.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
root
2026-04-30 07:42:04 -05:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 4.7
parent 87cbd10090
commit b13b5cd7a1
3 changed files with 217 additions and 11 deletions
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scripts/playbook_lift/main.go
+73 -8
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@@ -75,12 +75,19 @@ type queryRun struct {
PlaybookRecorded bool `json:"playbook_recorded"`
PlaybookID string `json:"playbook_target_id,omitempty"`
WarmTop1ID string `json:"warm_top1_id"`
WarmTop1Distance float32 `json:"warm_top1_distance"`
WarmBoostedCount int `json:"warm_boosted_count"`
WarmJudgeBestRank int `json:"warm_judge_best_rank"`
WarmTop1ID string `json:"warm_top1_id"`
WarmTop1Distance float32 `json:"warm_top1_distance"`
WarmBoostedCount int `json:"warm_boosted_count"`
WarmJudgeBestRank int `json:"warm_judge_best_rank"` // rank of cold judge-best in warm — NOT the warm pass's own judge-best
WarmTop1Metadata json.RawMessage `json:"-"` // cached for Pass 4 rejudge; not emitted
Lift bool `json:"lift"` // judge-best was below top-1 cold, but top-1 warm
// WarmTop1Rating: only populated when --with-rejudge. Compare to
// ColdRatings[0] (== cold top-1 rating) to measure quality lift.
// *int so absence (no rejudge pass) and a 0-rating verdict are
// distinguishable.
WarmTop1Rating *int `json:"warm_top1_rating,omitempty"`
Lift bool `json:"lift"` // judge-best was below top-1 cold, but top-1 warm
// Paraphrase pass — only populated when --with-paraphrase. Tests
// the playbook's actual learning property: does a recorded entry
@@ -114,6 +121,17 @@ type summary struct {
ParaphraseTop1Lifts int `json:"paraphrase_top1_lifts,omitempty"` // recorded answer surfaced at rank 0
ParaphraseAnyRankHits int `json:"paraphrase_any_rank_hits,omitempty"` // recorded answer surfaced at any rank in top-K
// Re-judge pass aggregates — only populated when --with-rejudge.
// Measures QUALITY lift (warm top-1 rating vs cold top-1 rating)
// rather than rank-of-cold-judge-best lift. The latter conflates
// "warm surfaced a different but equally-good result" with "warm
// shuffled ranks but the answer was the same"; quality lift
// disambiguates them.
RejudgeAttempted int `json:"rejudge_attempted,omitempty"` // queries that ran the rejudge pass
QualityLifted int `json:"quality_lifted,omitempty"` // warm-top-1 rating > cold-top-1 rating
QualityNeutral int `json:"quality_neutral,omitempty"` // ratings equal (could be same or different item)
QualityRegressed int `json:"quality_regressed,omitempty"` // warm-top-1 rating < cold-top-1 rating
GeneratedAt time.Time `json:"generated_at"`
}
@@ -128,6 +146,7 @@ func main() {
k := flag.Int("k", 10, "top-k from matrix.search per pass")
out := flag.String("out", "reports/reality-tests/playbook_lift_001.json", "output JSONL path")
withParaphrase := flag.Bool("with-paraphrase", false, "after warm pass, generate a paraphrase via the judge model and re-query with playbook=true to test the learning property")
withRejudge := flag.Bool("with-rejudge", false, "after warm pass, judge warm top-1 to measure QUALITY lift (vs cold top-1 rating), not just rank-of-cold-judge-best")
flag.Parse()
// Judge resolution priority: explicit flag > $JUDGE_MODEL env >
@@ -225,6 +244,7 @@ func main() {
}
runs[i].WarmTop1ID = resp.Results[0].ID
runs[i].WarmTop1Distance = resp.Results[0].Distance
runs[i].WarmTop1Metadata = resp.Results[0].Metadata // cache for Pass 4 rejudge
runs[i].WarmBoostedCount = resp.PlaybookBoosted
playbookBoostedTotal += resp.PlaybookBoosted
@@ -304,6 +324,47 @@ func main() {
}
}
// Pass 4 (warm-rejudge) — opt-in via --with-rejudge. Judge warm
// top-1 against the same prompt as cold ratings, then compare to
// cold top-1 rating. This measures QUALITY lift (did the playbook
// produce a better candidate?) rather than just rank-of-cold-judge-
// best lift (did the recorded answer move to top-1, even if cold's
// top-1 was already good?). See STATE_OF_PLAY OPEN — added because
// run #003's verbatim 2/6 didn't tell us whether Shape B was
// surfacing better OR same-quality alternatives.
rejudgeAttempted := 0
qualityLifted := 0
qualityNeutral := 0
qualityRegressed := 0
if *withRejudge {
log.Printf("[lift] warm-rejudge pass: measuring quality lift (warm top-1 rating vs cold top-1 rating)")
for i := range runs {
if runs[i].WarmTop1ID == "" || len(runs[i].WarmTop1Metadata) == 0 {
continue // warm pass didn't complete for this query
}
rejudgeAttempted++
result := matrixResult{
ID: runs[i].WarmTop1ID,
Distance: runs[i].WarmTop1Distance,
Metadata: runs[i].WarmTop1Metadata,
}
warmRating := judgeRate(hc, *ollama, *judge, runs[i].Query, result)
runs[i].WarmTop1Rating = &warmRating
coldRating := 0
if len(runs[i].ColdRatings) > 0 {
coldRating = runs[i].ColdRatings[0]
}
switch {
case warmRating > coldRating:
qualityLifted++
case warmRating < coldRating:
qualityRegressed++
default:
qualityNeutral++
}
}
}
sum := summary{
Total: len(runs),
WithDiscovery: withDiscovery,
@@ -314,6 +375,10 @@ func main() {
ParaphraseAttempted: paraphraseAttempted,
ParaphraseTop1Lifts: paraphraseTop1Lifts,
ParaphraseAnyRankHits: paraphraseAnyRankHits,
RejudgeAttempted: rejudgeAttempted,
QualityLifted: qualityLifted,
QualityNeutral: qualityNeutral,
QualityRegressed: qualityRegressed,
GeneratedAt: time.Now().UTC(),
}
if len(runs) > 0 {
@@ -323,11 +388,11 @@ func main() {
if err := writeJSON(*out, runs, sum); err != nil {
log.Fatalf("write %s: %v", *out, err)
}
if *withParaphrase {
log.Printf("[lift] DONE — %d queries · discovery=%d · lift=%d · boosted=%d · meanΔdist=%.4f · paraphrase=%d/%d→top1, %d/%d→anyrank",
if *withParaphrase || *withRejudge {
log.Printf("[lift] DONE — %d queries · discovery=%d · lift=%d · boosted=%d · meanΔdist=%.4f · paraphrase=%d/%d→top1 · quality=lifted%d/neutral%d/regressed%d",
sum.Total, sum.WithDiscovery, sum.LiftCount, sum.PlaybookBoostedTotal, sum.MeanTop1DeltaDistance,
sum.ParaphraseTop1Lifts, sum.ParaphraseAttempted,
sum.ParaphraseAnyRankHits, sum.ParaphraseAttempted)
sum.QualityLifted, sum.QualityNeutral, sum.QualityRegressed)
} else {
log.Printf("[lift] DONE — %d queries · discovery=%d · lift=%d · boosted=%d · meanΔdist=%.4f",
sum.Total, sum.WithDiscovery, sum.LiftCount, sum.PlaybookBoostedTotal, sum.MeanTop1DeltaDistance)