Predictive staffing forecast + per-contract timeline
J's ask: move the system from retrospective ranking to predictive anticipation. Show it tracks the clock, not just the roster. New endpoint /intelligence/staffing_forecast: - Pulls 30-day Chicago permit window (200 permits) - Maps work_type → role via industry heuristic - Aggregates predicted worker demand per role - Joins IL bench supply (workers_500k state='IL' group by role) - Computes coverage_pct, reliable_coverage_pct - Classifies risk: critical/tight/watch/ok - Computes earliest staffing deadline per role (permit issue_date + 31d = 45d construction start - 14d window) - Surfaces recent Chicago playbook ops for the role-specific memory New UI 'Staffing Forecast' section ABOVE Live Contracts: - Top card: total construction value, permit count, workers needed, critical/tight role count - Per-role rows: demand vs available supply, coverage %, deadline with red/amber/green urgency coloring Per-contract timeline on Live Contracts: - estimated_construction_start, staffing_window_opens, days_to_deadline - urgency classification: overdue/urgent/soon/scheduled - card border colored by urgency - timeline line explicitly shows recruiter: OVERDUE/URGENT + days count This is the 'system already thinks about when, not just who' surface J was asking for. CRMs store; this anticipates.
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@@ -1288,6 +1288,122 @@ tr:hover{background:#111827}
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// Predictive staffing forecast — aggregate demand inferred from
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// recent Chicago permits, compared to our bench supply. Answers
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// "what's coming in the next 30-60 days and can we cover it?"
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// — the contextual-awareness dimension beyond retrospective rank.
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if (url.pathname === "/intelligence/staffing_forecast" && req.method === "POST") {
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const start = Date.now();
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try {
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const permitUrl = "https://data.cityofchicago.org/resource/ydr8-5enu.json";
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// Last 30 days of permits — that's our forward demand window
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const thirtyDaysAgo = new Date(Date.now() - 30 * 86400e3).toISOString().slice(0, 10);
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const permits: any[] = await fetch(
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`${permitUrl}?$select=work_type,reported_cost,issue_date`
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+ `&$where=reported_cost>100000 AND issue_date>'${thirtyDaysAgo}'`
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+ `&$limit=200`
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).then(r => r.json()).catch(() => []);
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// Construction heuristic: permit filing → construction start
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// averages ~45 days. Staffing window opens 14 days before.
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const typeToRole: Record<string, string> = {
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"Electrical Work": "Electrician",
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"Masonry Work": "Production Worker",
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"Mechanical Work": "Maintenance Tech",
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"Reroofing": "Production Worker",
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"Plumbing Work": "Maintenance Tech",
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};
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// Aggregate demand by role
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const demandByRole: Record<string, { permits: number; total_cost: number; est_workers: number; earliest_need: string }> = {};
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for (const p of permits) {
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const role = typeToRole[p.work_type || ""] || "Production Worker";
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const cost = parseFloat(p.reported_cost || 0);
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const workers = Math.max(2, Math.min(Math.round(cost / 150000), 8));
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const issueDate = new Date(p.issue_date);
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const stagingDate = new Date(issueDate.getTime() + 31 * 86400e3); // 45d - 14d window
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if (!demandByRole[role]) {
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demandByRole[role] = { permits: 0, total_cost: 0, est_workers: 0,
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earliest_need: stagingDate.toISOString().slice(0, 10) };
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}
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demandByRole[role].permits += 1;
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demandByRole[role].total_cost += cost;
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demandByRole[role].est_workers += workers;
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const cur = new Date(demandByRole[role].earliest_need);
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if (stagingDate < cur) demandByRole[role].earliest_need = stagingDate.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
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}
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// Bench supply in IL
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const benchR = await api("POST", "/query/sql", {
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sql: `SELECT role, COUNT(*) as total, `
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+ `SUM(CASE WHEN CAST(availability AS DOUBLE) > 0.5 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as available, `
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+ `SUM(CASE WHEN CAST(reliability AS DOUBLE) > 0.8 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as reliable `
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+ `FROM workers_500k WHERE state = 'IL' `
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+ `GROUP BY role`,
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});
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const bench: Record<string, any> = {};
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for (const r of (benchR.rows || [])) bench[r.role] = r;
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// Past playbook fill-speed + success signal per role
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const playbookR = await api("POST", "/query/sql", {
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sql: `SELECT operation, COUNT(*) as fills `
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+ `FROM successful_playbooks_live `
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+ `WHERE operation LIKE '%Chicago, IL%' `
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+ `GROUP BY operation ORDER BY fills DESC LIMIT 20`,
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});
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const recentChicagoOps = playbookR.rows || [];
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// Build forecast entries with risk flag
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const forecast: any[] = [];
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for (const [role, d] of Object.entries(demandByRole)) {
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const b = bench[role] || { total: 0, available: 0, reliable: 0 };
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const coverage = d.est_workers > 0 ? Math.round((b.available / d.est_workers) * 100) : 999;
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const reliable_coverage = d.est_workers > 0 ? Math.round((b.reliable / d.est_workers) * 100) : 999;
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let risk = "ok";
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if (coverage < 100) risk = "critical";
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else if (coverage < 300) risk = "tight";
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else if (reliable_coverage < 200) risk = "watch";
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// Days until earliest staffing deadline
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const days_to_deadline = Math.round((new Date(d.earliest_need).getTime() - Date.now()) / 86400e3);
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forecast.push({
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role,
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demand_permits: d.permits,
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demand_workers: d.est_workers,
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demand_total_cost: d.total_cost,
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earliest_staffing_deadline: d.earliest_need,
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days_to_deadline,
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bench_total: b.total,
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bench_available: b.available,
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bench_reliable: b.reliable,
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coverage_pct: Math.min(coverage, 9999),
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reliable_coverage_pct: Math.min(reliable_coverage, 9999),
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risk,
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});
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}
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forecast.sort((a, b) => {
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const order: Record<string, number> = { critical: 0, tight: 1, watch: 2, ok: 3 };
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if (order[a.risk] !== order[b.risk]) return order[a.risk] - order[b.risk];
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return a.days_to_deadline - b.days_to_deadline;
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});
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return ok({
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generated_at: new Date().toISOString(),
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window_days: 30,
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permit_count: permits.length,
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total_cost: permits.reduce((s, p) => s + parseFloat(p.reported_cost || 0), 0),
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total_estimated_workers: forecast.reduce((s, f) => s + f.demand_workers, 0),
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critical_roles: forecast.filter(f => f.risk === "critical").length,
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tight_roles: forecast.filter(f => f.risk === "tight").length,
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forecast,
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recent_chicago_operations: recentChicagoOps,
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duration_ms: Date.now() - start,
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note: "Demand inferred from Chicago permit filings last 30 days. Construction starts ~45d after permit. Staffing window opens ~14d before construction. Supply = IL bench in workers_500k.",
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});
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} catch (e: any) {
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return err(`staffing_forecast: ${e.message}`, 500);
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}
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}
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// Intelligence: Chicago permits → assumed staffing contracts with
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// Phase 19-ranked candidates and Path-2 discovered patterns. Each
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// card pairs a REAL permit (live from data.cityofchicago.org) with
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@@ -1357,6 +1473,20 @@ tr:hover{background:#111827}
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};
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});
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// Timeline heuristic — permits filed now → construction
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// starts ~45d later → staffing window opens ~14d before
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// start. days_to_deadline is negative when we're past the
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// window (fill urgency is imminent).
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const issueDate = new Date(p.issue_date || Date.now());
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const estStart = new Date(issueDate.getTime() + 45 * 86400e3);
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const stagingDate = new Date(issueDate.getTime() + 31 * 86400e3);
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const daysToDeadline = Math.round((stagingDate.getTime() - Date.now()) / 86400e3);
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let urgency = "scheduled";
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if (daysToDeadline < 0) urgency = "overdue";
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else if (daysToDeadline <= 7) urgency = "urgent";
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else if (daysToDeadline <= 21) urgency = "soon";
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else urgency = "scheduled";
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contracts.push({
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permit: {
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cost,
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@@ -1366,6 +1496,12 @@ tr:hover{background:#111827}
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community_area: p.community_area,
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issue_date: (p.issue_date || "").substring(0, 10),
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},
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timeline: {
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estimated_construction_start: estStart.toISOString().slice(0, 10),
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staffing_window_opens: stagingDate.toISOString().slice(0, 10),
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days_to_deadline: daysToDeadline,
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urgency,
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},
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proposed: {
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role,
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count,
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